Economist Timothy Peterson suggests a high probability that Bitcoin’s price will be higher in December 2026 than its current level. His analysis, based on the observation that half of the past 24 months delivered positive returns, points to an 88% chance of an increase. The forecast arrives as Bitcoin trades significantly lower year-to-date amidst a divided outlook among market analysts.
Economist Timothy Peterson stated that half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin. “50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” Peterson said in a social media post.
He explained that he uses this metric to identify possible market inflection points. Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket are currently giving December only a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month in 2026.
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013. That average return is 41.13%, according to data from CoinGlass.
Peterson’s forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price trades nearly 25% below its level at the start of the year. It was valued at approximately $68,173 at the time of reporting, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on the asset’s near-term performance. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said he expects a positive week ahead for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, other analysts see more potential downside ahead for the cryptocurrency. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently stated that Bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026.”
The broader crypto market sentiment continues to decline as measured by various indicators. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 9, signaling significant investor caution.
