Ethereum fell below $1,900 during Tuesday’s Asian trading session, marking a nearly 38% decline over 30 days. Its current spot price near $1,830 is below the average holder cost basis of around $2,380, a level that historically preceded significant further sell-offs. Technical indicators and market flow data, including persistent outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, suggest continued downside pressure.
Ethereum traded below $1,900 on Tuesday, continuing a roughly 38% decline over the past month. This drop occurred within a broader risk-off market environment influenced by factors like U.S. tariffs and deteriorating investor sentiment.
The spot price of about $1,830 is now below Ethereum’s realised price of approximately $2,380. This on-chain metric reflects the average cost basis for all token holders, indicating many investors currently hold losing positions.
Historically, the market price falling below the realised price has acted as a resistance level. Past instances in June 2022 and August 2018 were followed by further declines of 45% and 77%, respectively.
From a technical perspective, the 50-week exponential moving average has not yet crossed below the 100-week EMA. Such a crossover has previously signaled the conclusion of bear market cycles.
Market flow data shows a negative Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, which measures price differences between major exchanges. Institutional demand has also weakened, as stated by data showing U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced five consecutive weeks of outflows.
These outflows totaled roughly $1.3 billion over that period, with about $123 million withdrawn last week alone. On-chain metrics, technical charts, and market flow data collectively suggest the current bearish phase may not be over.
