Ethereum is trading below $2,200 as the new week begins, staying above a critical $1,800 support zone while struggling to decisively move higher. The recovery from February’s lows has been shallow, and with macro uncertainty persisting, ETH remains in a position where it must prove itself rather than simply hold ground. Technical analysis shows a descending channel remains intact, with key resistance overhead, while a divergence in momentum indicators and a multi-year low in exchange-held supply suggest a structurally tighter market awaiting a demand catalyst.
Ethereum opened the new week trading below $2,200, holding above the critical $1,800 support zone but struggling to make a decisive move higher. The recovery from February’s lows has been frustratingly shallow amid broader macro uncertainty.
The descending channel on the daily chart remains intact, with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages forming a formidable resistance ceiling overhead. The price has oscillated below a $2,400 supply zone for weeks, meeting renewed selling pressure with every push into that area.
What is quietly improving is the RSI momentum oscillator, which has been rising since the February capitulation and now trends in the mid-to-high 50s. This kind of momentum divergence, where the price struggles while RSI steadily rises, can often precede a more forceful breakout attempt.
Holding the $1,800 support band remains non-negotiable for buyers, as a break below would expose ETH to $1,600 and $1,500 fairly quickly. Above, $2,400 is the most important level, representing the convergence of the descending channel’s higher trendline, the supply zone, and the 100-day moving average.
On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has respected a mildly ascending trendline from the February lows, providing support near $2,000. The $2,400 resistance zone is still within striking distance after a solid recovery over the past week, with the RSI on this timeframe showing momentum neutrality.
A clean breakout above $2,400 on this timeframe, ideally accompanied by RSI holding above 60, would be the most constructive short-term development ETH has seen in months. Failure to do so keeps the range-bound structure intact and brings the ascending trendline near $2,000 back into focus.
Ethereum’s exchange supply ratio has continued its relentless decline, now sitting at 0.126, which is a multi-year low reflecting an ongoing trend of holders withdrawing ETH into self-custody. The drop from a mid-2025 peak near 0.18 has been steep and consistent, mirroring the price correction almost in lockstep.
The current reading is particularly notable due to a growing divergence between supply availability and price, with ETH trading near $2,100–$2,200 while exchange-held supply is at levels not seen in the entire dataset. This means there is structurally less ETH available to sell on exchanges. In previous cycles, sustained declines in the exchange supply ratio have happened before price recoveries once demand returned.
