Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes suggests the divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks signals a potential AI-driven credit crisis. Hayes claims widespread AI job losses could trigger significant consumer credit losses and bank stress, forcing central banks to print money. He predicts this response would then propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Arthur Hayes states that Bitcoin’s divergence from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index warns of a looming credit destruction event. He calls Bitcoin *“the global fiat liquidity fire alarm.”*
Hayes believes job losses from AI adoption will heavily impact consumer credit and mortgage debt. He says this is due to affected workers being unable to meet monthly payments.
Data from early February showed companies cited AI when announcing 55,000 job cuts in 2025. This figure was reported as more than 12 times higher than two years prior.
Hayes estimates a 20% reduction in US knowledge workers could cause around $557 billion in credit losses. His model suggests this would represent a 13% write-down of US commercial bank equity.
He speculates weaker regional banks would fail first, causing depositors to flee and credit markets to seize. “Finally, the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump,” Hayes wrote.
Hayes predicted this surge in fiat creation would “pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows.” He further stated the expectation of money printing would “propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.”
The entrepreneur also mentioned two specific altcoins besides Bitcoin. He said his firm, Maelstrom, would deploy capital into Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE).
This is not Hayes’s first such prediction, as he previously forecasted money printing to address a Japanese bond crisis. In late 2025, he also predicted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by March due to Federal Reserve actions.
