Bitcoin is trading around $65,000 after a 30% pullback, with over two weeks of sideways price action increasing market tension. On-chain data reveals a whale placed a high-risk leveraged long bet, while overall trader positioning shows a strong bias toward more long positions. However, fading rate-cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and rising oil prices are applying macro pressure, raising the risk of a long squeeze against the crowded bullish bets.
Bitcoin is consolidating near the $65,000 level following a significant pullback. This extended period of sideways trading has increased market tension as traders await a decisive move.
On-chain tracker LookOnChain flagged a whale opening a 3x leveraged long position on 1,000 BTC. The entry was near $66,000, and the position currently holds an unrealized profit of approximately $1.08 million.
Data from CoinGlass shows a strong green tilt in the BTC long/short ratio, indicating more traders are taking long positions. With Bitcoin still chopping in a narrow range, the market is clearly positioning for a breakout.
However, when positioning becomes crowded in a low-volatility environment, the risk of a squeeze increases. If volatility spikes, this heavy long bias could put Bitcoin’s $65,000 level at risk of a downside flush.
The bullish momentum seen after recent jobs data has cooled off. Rate-cut expectations have dropped sharply, with probabilities falling to just 5.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, marking a monthly low.
Market expectations are also being overshadowed by rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This is putting Bitcoin under renewed macro pressure as traders pull back on risk.
Oil prices have pushed to a six-month high, a sign that inflationary pressure could build again. Key macro releases are still ahead, keeping the market on edge.
Taken together, the rising long positions are increasingly out of sync with the broader macro picture. The risk of a long squeeze is rising, and BTC’s $65,000 level could come under pressure if volatility moves against the crowd.
