A group of traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket reportedly earned nearly $1 million by correctly betting on a U.S. military strike against Iran. Blockchain data indicates six newly created wallets placed bets just hours before the event, drawing scrutiny and allegations of trading on leaked information. The contract for a strike by February 28 generated approximately $90 million in trading volume on the platform.
Six newly created wallets on Polymarket reportedly profited by nearly $1 million after correctly betting the United States would strike Iran by February 28. On-chain data shows the bets were placed just hours before reports of the first explosion.
The trading activity drew attention from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, which identified unusual patterns. All the wallets were created in February, with some purchases for as little as 11 cents paying out at 100 cents upon resolution.
Social media users accused the traders of acting on leaked government information. One viral post alleged, “Someone in Pete Hegseth inner circle is leaking Department of War data for insider trading on Polymarket.”
The February 28 strike contract attracted about $90 million in trading volume, becoming the platform’s most active date-based contract. This incident follows earlier criminal charges in Israel linking prediction-market bets to classified military intelligence.
Earlier in February, Israeli authorities indicted a military reservist and a civilian for using secret details to earn roughly $150,000 from bets on security operations. The latest trades fuel debate over prediction markets handling contracts tied to war and national security.
