The prediction market platform Kalshi voided positions in a market concerning Iran’s Supreme Leader opened after his confirmed death. Co-founder Tarek Mansour stated the platform has a clear policy against markets directly tied to death, implementing rules to prevent profiting from such events. Kalshi is issuing reimbursements and paying traders based on the last-traded price before the death. The move has drawn user criticism online. This follows recent suspicious trading activity on rival platform Polymarket, where six traders reportedly netted around $1 million on bets related to U.S. military action against Iran.
The prediction market Kalshi voided positions in its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market opened after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader was confirmed. Co-founder Tarek Mansour stated the platform does not list markets directly tied to death.
Iranian state media reported the death early Sunday following an attack by Israel and the United States. Kalshi is reimbursing all fees from the market and paying traders with earlier positions based on the “last-traded price before his death.”
Users who opened positions after the death will be reimbursed the price difference. A company spokesperson confirmed its long-standing policy against “death markets,” which was reiterated on Saturday. Mansour said death carveout stipulations were clearly stated in the market rules.
The decision sparked online backlash from users accusing the platform of curtailing profits. This incident occurs amid rising scrutiny of prediction market activity during geopolitical events.
In February, six traders on rival platform Polymarket netted about $1 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran. Bloomberg reported all six wallets were created that month and some bets were placed hours before explosions in Tehran.
The trading patterns raised suspicions of insider trading among onchain investigators. In January, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the arrest of an individual who leaked information about a raid in Venezuela.
This fueled speculation from onchain analysis platform Lookonchain that the leaker may have been linked to winning Polymarket bets placed before the U.S. raid in Caracas. The connection between geopolitical information leaks and prediction market gains remains a point of investigation.
