XRP recorded its largest on-chain realized loss since 2022 following a 70% price decline from July 2025 to February 2026, according to analytics firm Santiment. The firm noted that a similar historical loss spike preceded a 114% price rally, suggesting that if the pattern repeats, XRP could surpass $3.00 as selling pressure potentially diminishes.
The cryptocurrency XRP experienced significant volatility after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, surging from around $0.60 to over $3.60 within a year before crashing to approximately $1.11 in February 2026. This decline resulted in the token’s largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, as stated by market intelligence platform Santiment.
That previous loss event, valued at nearly $1.93 billion, was followed by an 114% price increase over the next eight months. Analysts suggest that if history repeats, XRP’s valuation could rise above $3.00 based on this pattern.
“Significant realized losses happen when a large number of investors sell their coins at a price lower than what they originally paid,” explained the company. The firm added that this activity usually coincides with peak fear and investor capitulation.
While negative in the short term, such a wave of heavy realized loss can signal that much of the market damage has already occurred. Santiment analysts noted that these large loss spikes often occur near market bottoms because extreme fear tends to peak before price does.
“Once sellers are exhausted, even a small amount of new buying pressure can push prices higher,” the analysis reads. This does not guarantee an immediate rally but increases the probability of a price bounce, according to the firm.
