Actor Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet as the favorite to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars according to traders on the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket. His odds have risen by over four times since March 1 following his win at the Actor Awards. The prediction market for this category has attracted over $5.6 million in trading volume, highlighting growing interest in such platforms, which are also navigating significant regulatory challenges in the United States.
Actor Michael B. Jordan’s odds of winning “Best Actor” at the 2026 Oscars have surged past those of Timothée Chalamet on Polymarket. His probability rose by over 4x since March 1, reaching about 47% one week before the Academy Awards ceremony.
Chalamet is a close second at 45%, while Leonardo DiCaprio has 5% odds. Jordan’s recent win at the Actor Awards, formerly the SAG Awards, has influenced the market shift on the crypto-based platform.
The Oscars prediction market on Polymarket has generated over $5.6 million in trading volume. Prediction markets gained prominence during the 2024 US elections and continue to see increased adoption.
Polymarket plans a full US platform rollout later in 2026 after a limited launch in December 2025. However, prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny from state-level authorities in the United States.
The company filed a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in February 2026. It argues that federal regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole authority over prediction markets, not state gambling authorities.
This lawsuit could establish a legal precedent on federal versus state oversight. Polymarket and rival Kalshi are also facing increased regulatory scrutiny in Nevada.
Both platforms are reportedly exploring new funding rounds that could value each at around $20 billion. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.
