Nearly half of the circulating Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss, with over 30% of long-term holders underwater for the first time since 2023. According to a new analysis, this marks the deepest losses for long-term holders in three years, indicating a sharp deterioration in confidence. Bitcoin’s price is flat near $66,567 but remains down roughly 47% from its all-time high of $126,080 set last October.
Data from CEX.io Research shows approximately 47% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, or about 9.4 million coins, is held at an unrealized loss. The firm’s report states that more than 30% of Bitcoin held by long-term holders, worth $304 billion, is now underwater, which is the highest share since 2023.
“Long-term holders are now selling at their deepest losses in three years, and the speed of the reversal indicates a sharp deterioration in confidence,” the report reads. Analysts added that while Bitcoin’s price has drifted higher recently, the share of profitable long-term holders has been shrinking simultaneously.
The CEX.io Bitcoin Impact Index, measuring holder stress, has flashed to “high impact,” signaling significant stress among holders and institutional capital. “This kind of divergence between price action and on-chain conviction has historically been a warning sign,” the report says, noting similar moves preceded price drops over 25% in mid-2018 and mid-2022.
A 25% drop from current levels would push Bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024. The current setup is described as resembling late January, which preceded Bitcoin’s fall from the mid-$90,000s to low $60,000s in early February.
The report notes a key difference is that holders are not yet rushing Bitcoin to exchanges to sell, which could help stabilize prices. This cautious analysis aligns with recent observations from VanEck of strong demand for downside protection and earlier predictions from CryptoQuant and Standard Chartered of potential bottoms near $55,000 and $50,000, respectively.
