Democratic lawmakers introduced the DEATH BETS Act to explicitly ban prediction market contracts tied to war, death, and assassination. The bill was introduced as CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced plans to expand regulatory guidance for event contracts, a sector facing scrutiny over markets on geopolitical conflict and violence.
Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation on Tuesday to ban prediction market contracts tied to war, death, and assassination. Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff unveiled the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act.
The DEATH BETS Act seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to explicitly prohibit any CFTC-registered entity from listing such contracts. Currently, the Commission has discretion to prohibit contracts only if they are contrary to the public interest.
Schiff stated on social media, “Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of nonpublic information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged.” Levin noted that over half a billion dollars was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran alone.
The bill arrives as CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced plans to draft new guidance for event contracts. Selig said prediction markets are “now viewed by the public as more accurate than political polls” and that the agency is “no longer going to sit idly.”
Last month, Schiff and other senators urged the CFTC in a letter to prohibit contracts correlating to an individual’s death. They argued these contracts present dangerous national security risks and create incentives for violence.
The letter cited markets on Polymarket, including one on Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro that netted a trader over $400,000. Last week, Polymarket pulled a nuclear detonation market that had attracted more than $838,000 in volume.
Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi is facing a class action lawsuit over its handling of a market on Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Plaintiffs allege the platform shortchanged winning bets by applying a “death carveout” clause after his death.
