Six traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket earned approximately $1 million after correctly wagering on a U.S. strike on Iran by the end of February, raising insider trading suspicions. Analytics firm Bubblemaps found the newly created wallets placed bets just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. Trading volume for related contracts surpassed $529 million during the escalation.
Six traders on Polymarket collectively earned about $1 million from accurate bets that the United States would strike Iran before March. Their newly created wallets focused almost exclusively on these contracts, with some purchases made mere hours before the event, according to data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps.
The pattern drew scrutiny from onchain investigators who noted it resembled suspected insider activity. “In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public,” said Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps.
Total volume for U.S. strike contracts on Polymarket exceeded $529 million. The most popular contract, predicting a strike by Feb. 28, alone saw roughly $90 million in trading volume.
One of the flagged accounts had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing a larger, successful wager. This suggests the trades are not definitive proof of wrongdoing, as stated in a report.
Polymarket has faced similar allegations recently. This week, a cluster of wallets earned over $1.2 million betting on an investigation into Axiom shortly before its publication.
Last month, another account made about $400,000 from a well-timed bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to curb such activity.
The proposed law would bar officials and employees from trading on nonpublic government information. Meanwhile, several countries have blocked Polymarket, classifying its contracts as unlicensed online gambling.
