Bitcoin surged over 3.5% to nearly $69,350 in early Monday trading, fueled by reports of potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran. The news triggered a major short squeeze in crypto markets, with over $200 million in short positions liquidated. Broader financial markets also reacted positively, while safe-haven assets like gold remained flat. Analysts caution that any sustained rally depends on the actual reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, with failure potentially sending Bitcoin down to $60,000.
Reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire between theU.S. andIran drove up Bitcoin and broader financial markets. Bitcoin hit a weekly high of $69,350 and oil prices dropped nearly 1.5%, detailsstatedthe talks aim for a permanent end to the war. A framework mediated byPakistan would need to be agreed upon by Monday.“It was the ceasefire negotiation reports from Iran, not Trump’s remarks, that contributed to Bitcoin’s price increase,” analystEkko An said.
The market saw a textbook short squeeze, with over $200 million in crypto shorts liquidated—four times more than longs—according toCoinGlass data. Market fear had primed a reversal, saidDerek Lim ofCaladan. This spike was also driven byMorgan Stanley launching a spot Bitcoin ETF with a competitive 0.14% fee on April 8.
Analysts noted the Strait of Hormuz remains a key structural concern for any rally.“Hormuz reopening would collapse the oil risk premium, which would pull forward rate cut expectations, which would re-lever the entire risk curve from equities to crypto,” Lim explained. However, he warned that rhetoric-driven rallies tend to fade without an actual normalization of ship traffic through the strait.
Prediction markets show lingering uncertainty despite the day’s optimism. The chance of a U.S./Iran ceasefire in the first half of the year rose over 10% but remains at 45%,according todataMyriad. Traders now assign a 46% chancethat Bitcoin’s next move will be a rally to $84,000. Both analysts who spoke toDecrypt said a retest of $80,000 is possible if talks succeed and a ceasefire is confirmed.
