New research from the California Institute of Technology and quantum startup Oratomic suggests quantum computers may need only 10,000–20,000 qubits to break modern cryptography, a significant reduction from previous estimates in the millions. The study outlines a new error-correction approach for neutral-atom systems, accelerating the potential timeline for machines capable of running Shor’s algorithm, which threatens the elliptic-curve cryptography securing Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Caltech researchers, working with Pasadena-based startup Oratomic, have published a study indicating fault-tolerant quantum computers could run Shor’s algorithm with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits. This new neutral-atom approach, where lasers trap individual atoms as qubits, dramatically lowers the resource threshold previously thought necessary to crack cryptographic systems.
Oratomic CEO Dolev Bluvstein stated that quantum computing progress is accelerating faster than many assume. “People are used to quantum computers always being 10 years away,” Bluvstein said, noting that required qubit counts have fallen from past estimates of one billion.
Current error-correction methods often need about 1,000 physical qubits to create one reliable logical qubit, pushing practical system estimates into the million-qubit range. However, lab systems are already approaching 6,000 physical qubits, suggesting the cryptographic risk may materialize sooner.
In September, Caltech revealed a neutral-atom computer operating 6,100 qubits with high accuracy, a milestone toward error-corrected machines. This advancement has renewed concerns about future threats to Bitcoin’s security model from quantum algorithms.
The looming threat has prompted a global push to adopt post-quantum cryptography designed to withstand such attacks. Researchers caution that major engineering challenges in scaling systems with low error rates remain, despite the reduced qubit estimates.
Bluvstein emphasized that a practical quantum computer could emerge before 2030, though building it is a highly non-trivial task. The risk extends beyond cryptocurrency to the entire global digital infrastructure, including communications and IoT devices.
Separate findings from Google researchers this week also suggested elliptic curve cryptography could be broken with fewer resources than thought. This adds urgency to calls for migrating to quantum-resistant encryption before such machines become viable.
