On Tuesday, Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode published a quarterly report finding Bitcoin more resilient after the fourth-quarter selloff, with excess leverage largely removed and liquidity supportive of near-term stability. The firms said this reduced vulnerability to cascading liquidations and made the market better able to absorb macro shocks.
The report describes Bitcoin behaving like a macro-sensitive asset driven by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing. Researchers noted a shift from retail momentum and leveraged trading toward disciplined, durability-focused market structure.
The authors highlight a custom Global M2 Money Supply Index that has historically led Bitcoin’s price by roughly 110 days (Ed. note: the index points to near-term support while growth is set to moderate). They warned money supply growth may slow later in the quarter.
Open interest in Bitcoin options now exceeds perpetual futures as institutions increasingly buy downside protection rather than add directional leverage. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani warned that macro events make leverage-heavy trading risky, saying With the Fed’s rate decision, inflation data, political risks, and trade tensions converging, the market faces too many unpredictable factors to favor leverage-heavy trading or upside hunting.
On-chain metrics showed higher coin movement late last year and a drop in long-held supply, suggesting redistribution by long-term holders instead of forced selling. Sentiment weakened since October and remains cautious.
The authors cautioned that slower liquidity growth, renewed inflationary pressure, or geopolitical shocks could test market stability. Bitcoin traded near $89,000, up about 1.2% on the day and flat over seven days, according to CoinGecko.
