Investment firm managing partner Anthony Scaramucci attributes the ongoing Bitcoin bear market to its historical four-year cycle and long-term holders selling near the $100,000 level. He suggests that while institutional investment has dampened volatility, the cycle remains influential. Scaramucci expects choppy prices to persist for much of the year, with a new bull market potentially beginning in late 2026.
According to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm, the current Bitcoin bear market stems from its four-year cycle and sales by long-term holders at a key psychological threshold. He stated that institutional investors and ETF inflows have “muted” the cycle but not erased it, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy among believers.
Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to see volatile price action through most of 2026. He forecasted that a new bull market cycle could begin in the fourth quarter of this year.
Market participants, including Scaramucci, had widely expected BTC to reach around $150,000 in 2025. The October market crash, which saw Bitcoin fall from roughly $126,000 to a low of $60,000, shattered that consensus.
Scaramucci noted that markets often move contrary to prevailing sentiment. He cited Bitcoin’s price action in early 2023 after the FTX collapse as an example of a bull market beginning during a period of “great disinterest and great apathy.”
Industry figures continue to debate whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory remains valid. This debate follows Bitcoin ending 2025 with negative returns, raising questions about permanently altered market dynamics.
The price of Bitcoin fell below $69,000 as the war in Iran entered its third week. This geopolitical turmoil jolted risk assets across financial markets.
The S&P 500 index declined about 1.3%, closing below its 200-day moving average. earlier, the index closed below that key technical indicator for the first time in ten months. Some analysts forecast a potential 50% drop in BTC’s price for 2026 if its positive correlation with the S&P 500 continues.
