A new report indicates stablecoins could benefit from AI-driven machine payments long-term, though early adoption remains limited. The report states broader payment use cases like cross-border business and remittances are the current growth engine for stablecoins, with total payment volume reportedly rising to $375 billion in 2025. It identifies Coinbase and Circle as key players due to their USDC partnership, noting the stablecoin recorded $2.4 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026.
Brokerage firm Bernstein states stablecoins could help unlock machine-to-machine payments by enabling microtransactions and programmable payments. This potential comes as Visa‘s crypto division and Stripe-backed Tempo launch new tools for autonomous payments.
Early traction, however, has been limited according to the report. Stripe and Tempo’s protocol recorded about $5,000 in stablecoin volume in its first week, while Coinbase’s x402 protocol handled no more than $25 million over the last 30 days. Bernstein’s broader point is that stablecoin demand does not require machine payments to succeed.
The firm argues current demand is being driven by cross-border business payments, remittances, and card-linked products. This makes AI payments an upside case rather than the core growth thesis for the sector.
Bernstein identifies Coinbase and stablecoin issuer Circle as the “best proxies for stablecoin upside” due to their USDC partnership. The report also argues USDC is likely to capture a dominant share of any machine-payment activity because of its liquidity and regulatory status.
Some early metrics for machine payments have drawn skepticism. Applying a wash trading filter, AI Agent payment volume on x402 was only $1.6 million, significantly lower than an initial $24 million reported elsewhere.
A16z partner Noah Levine stated, “$1.6 million is not a big number. But the infrastructure being built around it is.” He noted the protocol is already integrated by major firms like Stripe and Google.
