The March Federal Open Market Committee meeting has gained heightened significance for cryptocurrency markets following a bearish first quarter. Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data has sharply reduced investor expectations for near-term interest rate cuts, increasing market volatility. This repricing has contributed to Bitcoin’s price fragility as it trades within a narrow range, with technical failures increasing the risk of a breakdown toward $60,000.
The March FOMC meeting carries added weight for risk assets after a weak Q1 for high-cap cryptocurrencies. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, far above expectations.
This stronger-than-expected labor market report caused markets to repricing rate-cut expectations. The probability of a near-term rate cut fell sharply from 20.1% to 6.4% following the release.
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the report, saying it could lower the country’s interest burden. Skeptics like The Kobeissi Letter argued that “the Fed pause will continue,” as a strong labor market reduces urgency for cuts.
Bitcoin’s price dipped 2.54% following the jobs data release, evidencing the shift in expectations. The asset has been chopping between $65,000 and $70,000, a range reflecting speculative positioning.
Bitcoin’s long/short ratio flipped negative over the same period, indicating crowded short-term positioning. Short-term holders have been losing patience, with BTC still trading 30% below their cost basis.
Technically, Bitcoin has failed to flip resistance into support twice since its January peak near $97,000. These failures first occurred around $85,000–$90,000 and then near $75,000.
This setup increases the incentive for short-term holders to capitulate, raising the odds of Bitcoin breaking its $65,000 floor. The elevated volatility from shifting rate-cut expectations remains a major bearish catalyst for the market.
