Long-term Bitcoin investors face minimal risk of loss, according to new analysis. Data indicates that holding BTC for at least three years historically resulted in a loss only 0.70% of the time. Meanwhile, Bernstein maintains a $150,000 price target for 2026, while other forecasts cluster around $100,000 to $150,000 for the coming years.
Bitcoin rewards investors most who hold it for at least three years, according to data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe. An analysis of Bitcoin’s price history from 2010 to 2026 shows the probability of loss drops to just 0.70% over a three-year holding period. The risk falls further to 0.2% over five years and to zero over a decade.
Conversely, traders holding for shorter periods face much higher risks. Intraday buyers historically had a 47.1% chance of loss, while those holding for one year still faced a 24.3% probability. This pattern is reinforced by realized price data, which shows the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown during corrections tends to be.
As of a recent Saturday, Bitcoin was trading around $65,000. This was roughly 50% below its October 2025 high but still far above the three-to-five-year realized price of approximately $35,000. Investors in that cohort were sitting on an estimated 90% profit, while most who bought within the last two years were underwater.
Longer-term price forecasts for 2026-2027 remain focused on key upside targets. Bernstein has maintained its $150,000 BTC price call for 2026, with analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stating, “The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence.” Standard Chartered warned of a potential drop toward $50,000 before a recovery toward $100,000 by late 2026.
Looking further ahead, an historical framework points to Bitcoin reaching approximately $122,000 by early 2027. This analysis suggests high odds that BTC will trade above that figure in the specified timeframe.
