President Trump’s Tuesday deadline to Iran creates a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, as a failure to reach a deal could strengthen BTC’s role as a hedge against fiscal instability. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s decoupling from gold continues, with BTC rising above $69,000 while gold prices hold near $4,650.
President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline to Iran could be the catalyst needed for a Bitcoin (BTC) rally above $75,000. Should a deal fail to materialize, Bitcoin’s risk perception could strengthen due to its unique decentralized properties.
Conversely, a positive outcome in negotiations would likely propel risk assets, including Bitcoin. Senior Iranian officials reportedly stated the strait will remain blocked until Iran receives compensation for war damages.
These mixed signals failed to convince market participants on Monday, as US stock markets traded mostly flat. In contrast, Bitcoin jumped above $69,000 for the first time in over 10 days—a trend made more notable by gold prices holding near $4,650, down 17% from a $5,600 all-time high.
Traders are increasingly concerned that central banks will be forced to liquidate their gold reserves. The Turkish Central Bank reported sales of 50 tonnes of gold for the week ending March 20, the sharpest decline in over seven years.
According to Reuters, Turkey has also sold $26 billion in foreign currencies to stabilize markets since the US and Israel-Iran war broke out in late February. Similarly, Russian gold reserves measured in tons have dropped to their lowest levels in four years.
A ceasefire in Iran, even if temporary, would almost certainly bolster risk markets, though the implications for Bitcoin are less certain. Traditional corporations remain heavily dependent on energy costs and global logistics, so any reduction in geopolitical risk is immediately reflected in equity prices.
However, a deal between the US and Iran would likely have a less direct impact on Bitcoin, as a resolution would likely strengthen the demand for US Treasuries. Yields on the US 5-year Treasury note surged to 4% from 3.55% in late February, signaling that investors are demanding higher returns to hold those bonds.
Mohit Mirpuri, an equity fund manager at SGMC Capital, warned that “the damage to confidence and supply chains is already done — things don’t just snap back to normal.” Predicting that the Bitcoin price will rally 8% by Tuesday based solely on a potential resolution seems far-fetched.
