The US CLARITY Act, a key piece of cryptocurrency market structure legislation, faces a narrowing path to passage this year. According to industry executives, the bill must advance through a key Senate committee by the end of April to have a realistic chance, with floor time rapidly diminishing. The current debate centers on whether stablecoin rewards could disrupt traditional banking, though other regulatory hurdles may follow.
The US CLARITY Act may have little chance of passing in 2026 if it does not move forward within the next seven weeks. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, stated that the legislation needs to reach the Senate floor by early May.
“If CLARITY doesn’t pass committee by the end of April, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low,” Thorn said. US Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated the chamber will prioritize other legislation before April, further compressing the timeline.
The main perceived holdup is a debate over stablecoin rewards and their potential impact on the traditional banking system. Thorn warned that settling this issue may not be the final hurdle, pointing to potential future debates around DeFi, developer protections, and regulatory authority.
“It’s very possible that rewards are not the ‘final’ hurdle but instead just the current hill the bill is dying on,” he said. US Senator Angela Alsobrooks recently said both crypto and banking lobbies will have to accept compromises.
Some lawmakers had expressed optimism for an April timeline. Crypto-friendly US Senator Bernie Moreno said on Feb. 19 that the CLARITY Act could move through Congress “hopefully by April.”
However, investment bank TD Cowen warned in January that crypto market structure legislation may not pass until 2027. The firm suggested it might take effect in 2029 if political dynamics shift after the midterm elections.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump criticized banks for stalling the Senate’s crypto bill. “The US needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP,” Trump said on Mar. 4.
