Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has disclosed his strategy for using the prediction market Polymarket, revealing he looks for markets in “crazy mode” and bets against extreme outcomes. Buterin claims this approach earned him roughly $70,000 on a $440,000 stake so far in 2025. He also highlighted critical security vulnerabilities in the oracles that supply data to such platforms, citing a specific incident where a hacked social media account triggered substantial, erroneous payouts.
Vitalik Buterin has detailed his personal trading strategy on the prediction marketplace Polymarket. He explained that he seeks out markets in what he calls “crazy mode” and bets that “crazy things won’t happen.”
Buterin told an interviewer that he looks for examples like a market betting on whether Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize. He claims this strategy netted him $70,000 from a $440,000 stake in 2025, a roughly 16% gain.
The Ethereum co-founder also addressed significant problems with the oracles that feed real-world data to blockchain prediction markets. He cited a market tied to the Russia-Ukraine war that relied on maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
After the think tank’s social media account was hacked, its maps falsely showed Russian control of a key city, triggering erroneous payouts. “They never imagined that a single message they posted would determine the ownership of $1 million on the blockchain,” Buterin stated.
Ukrainian local media reported that some bettors may have seen payouts over 33,000% on a market with roughly $1.3 million in volume. The ISW later issued an apology for the unauthorized edit.
Buterin proposed potential solutions to improve oracle security, including a centralized model using a reputable news provider. His second suggestion involved token-based voting systems like those used by UMA.
“A reliable oracle is very important because almost every DeFi project now requires one,” Buterin said. He emphasized that real-world applications, from real estate to election predictions, depend on robust oracle systems.
