Technical and on-chain data indicate XRP may be approaching a macro bottom after an eight-month downtrend. The XRP/BTC ratio’s daily Relative Strength Index is at its most oversold level since October 2025, a condition that preceded major breakouts in late 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, XRP’s MVRV Z-score is near zero, a zone historically associated with accumulation and market bottoms, suggesting reduced sell pressure.
XRP has been in an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and onchain indicators at levels that previously coincided with macro bottoms. Data from TradingView reveals that the relative strength index of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, the most oversold level since October 2025.
Such low levels in the daily RSI have marked market bottoms for the ratio, ultimately leading to 65% to 345% XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin. The chart also shows that the XRP/BTC pair is trading within a long consolidation range that has previously acted as a strong launching pad.
The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this zone was in June 2025. That instance marked the beginning of a 61% increase in the ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.
XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms. This indicates most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and signalling potential downside exhaustion.
Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022 and 2024 before major rallies. The last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024 coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rally.
Meanwhile, the XRP/USD pair remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. Trader ChiefraT stated in an X post, “If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”
The importance of this support is reinforced by cost basis distribution showing nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price. Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is located.
If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would face a measured target of the bear flag at $0.80. Holding the $1.27-$1.30 zone would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control.
