XRP faces significant downside pressure as its price falls below the average buy price of the past year. The cryptocurrency recently experienced its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025, trading around $1.60. On-chain data indicates many recent buyers are now underwater, and whale outflows continue, mirroring a bearish setup from 2022.
XRP has undergone its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025. It is now trading around $1.60, which is well below the cost basis of buyers from the last 12 months.
The price sits just above its aggregated realized price near $1.48. This means a large share of XRP’s recent buyers are underwater, according to data from Glassnode.
Data from CryptoQuant shows XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative. Large holders are distributing rather than accumulating assets.
Exchange stablecoin flows flipped sharply negative in late 2025. Thirty-day net outflows reached roughly $9.6 billion at that time.
Outflows have eased but net flows stayed negative at around $4 billion in January. This data was gathered by Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.
Price charts show XRP is holding above its 100-2W exponential moving average near $1.43. This level is close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48.
Its two-week relative strength index is currently near 38. This level has historically preceded price reversals for the asset.
A decisive breakdown below the 100-2W EMA would invalidate a potential recovery scenario. “A drop to $1 would put XRP about 36% below current levels,” the analysis notes.
In such a case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA near $1 as early as March. This would echo a similar breakdown pattern observed in 2022.
