XRP continues to face significant downward pressure, holding near $1.30 after failing to reclaim levels above $2. Data reveals persistent daily realized losses between $20 million and $110 million, driven by newer investors selling. With 56% of its supply underwater and a heavy concentration of holdings in the $1.90-$2.20 cost-basis range, substantial overhead supply is capping recovery attempts and extending bottom formation timelines.
The pressure on XRP runs deeper than its current price near $1.30, with positioning imbalances from its 2025 rally continuing to unwind. Heavy retail inflows during that period expanded short-term holder exposure, which now drives reactive selling as prices have declined since late 2024.
Realized losses have consistently ranged between $20 million and $110 million per day, according to on-chain analytics. These losses are clustered within newer cohorts, indicating forced exits rather than strategic rotation.
A persistent imbalance is clear when viewed through cost-basis positioning, which shows where the selling pressure originates. Large supply clusters remain concentrated between $1.90 and $2.20, a zone where holders from the 2024–2025 inflow period approach breakeven and create steady sell-side pressure.
Instead of a single capitulation event, a February loss spike extended into continued distribution through March. At the same time, some demand absorbs supply near lower levels, preventing deeper breakdowns.
This resistance around key cost levels caps XRP‘s recovery and redefines how altcoin bottoms take shape. While price holds below the $1.43 realized level, recovery attempts repeatedly stall near overhead supply.
Approximately 69% of XRP‘s supply sits in wallets under one year old, with 36.9% concentrated in the 6–12 month band. These cohorts remain sensitive to price swings, so each rally invites exit-driven selling.
This creates a slow rotation dynamic where weak hands exit and stronger hands absorb supply. As this unfolds, recoveries are stretched out, although the same process gradually builds a more stable base.
