21Shares’ latest “State of Crypto” report concludes Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has not been broken, despite many analysts believing it ended in early 2026. The report notes Bitcoin’s price trajectory, after peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, continues to mirror historical post-halving cycles, though the current ~50% drawdown is less severe than past bear markets. While stronger fundamentals and a price above the $54,000 aggregate cost basis suggest resilience, the report indicates investor sentiment remains tied to macro conditions and projects a potential recovery toward $100,000 by year-end.
A new report from 21Shares argues Bitcoin’s price action continues to closely resemble its traditional four-year market cycle. Many analysts had previously believed this cycle ended at the start of 2026.
Bitcoin reached a peak near $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a sharp correction. Its subsequent trajectory has largely mirrored earlier post-halving market cycles.
The authors stress this does not totally refute the notion that the market has changed. They stated, “Bitcoin’s cycle is evolving, but it has not broken yet.”
The current approximate 50% decline is much less severe than the 80% to 90% drawdowns of past bear markets. The report also noted, “bitcoin has also, so far, avoided the outright capitulation that defined earlier downturns—it has not yet traded below its aggregate cost basis of $54,000.”
The report argued stronger fundamentals do not make Bitcoin immune to market cycles. Investor sentiment remains heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions.
Even so, 21Shares projected Bitcoin could recover toward $100,000 by the end of 2026. This aligned with other analysis suggesting Bitcoin could rebound toward $65,460 if bullish momentum strengthens.
The ETF market showed stress with outflows of $2.92 billion in June 2026 and $2.34 billion in May. March and April saw billions in inflows, but only outflows occurred in January and February.
Meanwhile, the LTH/STH SOPR ratio, which contrasts profits between long-term and short-term holders, recently fell to about 0.7. While seasoned investors exhibit conviction, short-term holders responding to recent volatility are the main source of selling pressure.
Separate analysis indicated market makers’ net gamma exposure has turned negative as Bitcoin traded below the gamma flip level of roughly $68,000–$70,000. Volatility is more likely to be elevated in this setting because dealers’ hedging activity tends to intensify price swings.
