Bitcoin is showing signs of underlying demand weakness despite trading near $89,500. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift, with Bitcoin’s 30-day Apparent Demand now in a deficit of 60,000 to 80,000 BTC. This coincides with substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $1.3 billion in the past week, amplifying the supply imbalance and increasing downside risk for the asset.
Bitcoin’s recent price action highlights a structural imbalance as the asset trades range-bound near recent highs. Follow-through buying remains weak despite this resilience, with volatility persisting as liquidity tightens.
Capital is rotating defensively rather than aggressively into Bitcoin, according to analysis. This backdrop makes negative on-chain demand significantly more important for the market’s direction.
Bitcoin’s 30-day Apparent Demand has shifted clearly into negative territory. CryptoQuant’s analysis confirms the deficit now sits between roughly 60,000 to 80,000 BTC, revealing a minor supply-demand imbalance.
This change reflects distribution by miners and long-term holders, while new buyers fail to absorb the available supply. Consequently, the price comes under strain, consolidating and retracing rather than expanding upward.
The situation is reinforced by data on spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which show a growing mismatch. Current flows indicate net outflows surpassing $1.3 billion per week, even as total ETF assets remain high at $115.9 billion.
Instead of supporting accumulation, recent ETF activity signals a shift toward distribution by investors. Historically, similar ETF outflow phases have preceded broader periods of market weakness.
During the 2021–2022 cycle transition, similarly sustained negative demand preceded prolonged downside. The current setup echoes that phase, where surface price stability masked a weakening market structure underneath.
Unless demand recovers meaningfully, this pattern increases the risk that recent price strength reflects a late-cycle or bear-market rally rather than renewed accumulation. The situation could ease if spot ETF inflows stabilize or broader financial liquidity loosens.
