Bitcoin has fallen below the average purchase price of U.S. spot ETF investors after recording severe outflows, pushing those holders into unrealized losses. On-chain data simultaneously shows a sharp drop in the amount of Bitcoin held in profit across the network, indicating a broad market reset in holder positioning.
Bitcoin is now trading below the aggregate average cost basis of U.S. spot exchange-traded fund investors following two weeks of record outflows. This shift has pushed the average ETF holder into an unrealized loss position, according to data.
Bitcoin traded near $74,000 while the ETF average cost basis sat above $84,000. Historically, periods when spot prices remain below this cost basis tend to suppress short-term institutional demand.
On-chain metrics reveal a parallel contraction in holder profitability across the network. CryptoQuant’s Supply in Profit metric shows the amount of Bitcoin held at a gain has dropped to 11–12 million BTC, down from 19–20 million in August.
This decline marks one of the lowest readings of the current cycle. The pattern suggests the market is transitioning from profit-driven selling to loss-driven consolidation.
The convergence of ETF losses and declining on-chain profitability helps explain recent muted rebounds and thin liquidity. Current price action reflects a structural reset in positioning rather than a leverage-led liquidation cascade.
Stabilization likely requires either prolonged consolidation or renewed demand strong enough to lift prices above key aggregate entry levels. Until one of these occurs, upside momentum may remain constrained.
