A closely watched analyst has argued that XRP may drop to a price between $0.70 and $0.90 from its current level, describing this as a potential third accumulation base. Meanwhile, separate on-chain data presents a complex picture, showing spot buyers are absorbing supply while futures traders increase short positions, framing a scenario of spot accumulation versus a futures reset.
A popular analyst, ChartNerd, posted an analysis arguing XRP is tracing a classic multi-year base pattern. *“XRP is tracing a classic multi-year base pattern,” they wrote. “BASE 1 and BASE 2 are complete, with a potential BASE 3 forming in the $0.90/$0.70 area ahead of multi-year resistance.”*
According to the analyst, these bases have historically powered violent rallies, but a third base needs to complete first. Achieving this would require a drop of 35% to 50% from XRP’s current price of around $1.43.
Contrasting data from analyst Amr Taha shows spot buyers and futures traders moving in opposite directions. All-exchange spot CVD climbed from $1.08 billion to $1.39 billion over a recent period, while Binance perpetual CVD fell to roughly -$392 million.
Taha called this “a spot accumulation versus futures reset setup” rather than a clean bearish signal. Separate data also puts XRP’s open interest Z-score around 0.96, modestly above its 30-day average.
At the time of writing, XRP was up about 1% in the last 24 hours and essentially flat on the week. The broader market was down 0.7% over the same period, meaning XRP held its own marginally.
Analyst Ali Martinez has separately pointed to whale accumulation and other signals for a potential trend reversal. His target is $1.90 if XRP closes above $1.55, a view that can coexist with a longer-term base formation thesis.
