Bitcoin’s price decline has brought it closer to a key on-chain support level historically associated with market bottoms, according to an analytics report. The cryptocurrency fell below $60,000 last week, approaching its realized price of approximately $53,600. However, the report indicates that a sustainable price recovery is not imminent due to a significant lack of buyer demand, highlighted by persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin moved closer to its realized price last week as it fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. According to a new analytics report, this marker has typically been a key structural point for market bottoms.
The realized price, or the average cost basis for all market participants, is currently around $53,600. Analysts noted that historically, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below this level in each major bear cycle.
Despite the recent bounce, the report states there is not enough demand to support a sharp price recovery. It described the current situation as showing accelerating contraction in both speculative and apparent spot demand.
Data combining long liquidations and spot Bitcoin demand contractions pointed to the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022. The report concluded that there are structurally fewer Bitcoin buyers today than a year ago.
Significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs underscore this demand withdrawal. These funds have seen more than $4.8 billion in total outflows since mid-May, with only one day of inflows in that period.
Bitcoin bull and MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor recently called the movement “capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment.” Nevertheless, the analytics report states holders have not reached capitulation levels yet.
Realized losses will need to accelerate to clear the supply overhang necessary for a durable price recovery. Bitcoin is now trading around $61,680, which is 51% below its all-time high of approximately $126,080.
