The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the average purchase price for U.S. spot ETF investors, putting them at a loss. Analysis from Bianco Research indicates a key support level near $84,500, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee links market turbulence to the upcoming Federal Reserve chair selection.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors are now underwater, as the asset’s price recently fell to approximately $82,300. According to macro investment research analyst Jim Bianco, the Average Cost Basis for all ETF buyers since 2024 stood at $90,200, meaning those holders are down about 8.5%.
Historical data suggests a potential rebound could form if the price stabilizes near average ETF purchase levels. The combined average purchase price for Strategy and spot BTC ETFs is currently $84,500, a level that has previously eased major drawdowns.
A sustained break below that $84,500 support could signal a deeper market correction. According to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the market will stabilize only after the new Fed chair pick has been confirmed and tested.
Market headwinds are underscored by Bitcoin’s 30-day demand growth turning negative for the first time since mid-2025. A recovery would likely require ETF flows to return to being net positive.
The political landscape is adding to volatility, as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to announce the new Fed chair pick. This aligns with prior projections from Tom Lee anticipating a turbulent market environment for 2026.
