Bitcoin has declined from $96,000 in January 2026 to $62,700 at press time, marking a sustained drop throughout H1 2026. Exchange-traded funds recently reported $281.8 million in weekly inflows, the first since early May, ending an eight-week outflow streak that depleted over $7 billion. Geopolitical instability, including the Middle East conflict and President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran ceasefire, contributed to market stress. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% through mid-2026. Blockchain security incidents rose 50% year over year, though total losses fell 60% to about $956 million. The real-world asset market capitalization exceeded $33 billion, representing 200% annual growth. Despite these signals, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in “Extreme Fear” territory, and no bottom has been confirmed.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen from its January 2026 peak of $96,000 to $62,700 at press time, with brief spikes in value proving short-lived. Exchange-traded funds reported $281.8 million in weekly inflows, marking their first positive week since the second week of May.
According to available data, $197.4 million flowed into Bitcoin funds and $84.4 million into Ethereum funds, ending an eight-week outflow streak that removed more than $7 billion from cryptocurrency ETFs. However, 12-month inflows have fallen to about $1 billion, down from a peak of $12 billion in October 2025 and $10 billion in late April.
The first two weeks of July appeared to be when outflows stopped falling, though no one is prepared to declare a bottom. The Middle East conflict was the major reason behind Bitcoin’s bearish momentum, though the situation appeared to stabilize in H2 2026.
Oil jumped more than 5% toward the $75 resistance level, but Bitcoin’s price remained comparatively resilient. The resilience continued even after President Trump withdrew from the Iran ceasefire, reigniting macro uncertainty.
The central bank maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% through mid-2026, indicating no rush to lower rates as inflation remains above target. Blockchain security incidents rose by about 50% year over year to 182, though total losses decreased by about 60% to approximately $956 million, compared to $2.37 billion the previous year.
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, roughly $216 million, to pay preferred stock dividends, hinting that investors may be waiting for more convincing evidence that inflation is decreasing. The total distributed real-world asset market capitalization exceeded $33 billion, representing 200% year-over-year growth and a nearly 20x increase since January 2024.
The RWA growth significantly outpaced stablecoins’ 2.4x growth during the same period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone at press time, reflecting that $7 billion in outflows cannot be reversed by a single strong week of inflows.
