Bitcoin’s supply held on exchanges has plunged to 2.56 million BTC, one of its lowest levels since 2020 according to an analysis by Alphractal. The sharp decline over the past year, estimated at 440,000 BTC, is fueling accumulation speculation. The trend coincides with continued institutional buying, highlighted by Michael Saylor’s company Strategy adding 1,587 BTC worth approximately $100 million to its corporate reserves.
The metric measuring Bitcoin’s cumulative net flow across exchanges has fallen to 2.56 million BTC. This level marks one of the lowest balances observed since 2020, according to the latest analysis.
The exchange flux balance rises when more BTC is sent to exchanges and falls during periods of net withdrawals. A declining balance often links to accumulation behavior as coins move into self-custody.
The balance previously fell to nearly 2.6 million BTC in mid-2022 following major market turmoil. It later climbed above 3 million BTC during the late 2024 and early 2025 bull market cycle.
Over the last 12 months, the balance has steadily declined from about 3 million BTC. Alphractal described the decline recorded through 2025 and 2026 as one of the sharpest drawdowns in the dataset.
One interpretation suggests the outflows point to longer-term holding behavior. Another view is that Bitcoin may be moving into alternative custody structures like ETFs or institutional vaults not fully captured by the on-chain data.
The trend coincides with ongoing institutional Bitcoin accumulation. The business intelligence firm Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has continued adding to its corporate reserves.
Strategy recently acquired 1,587 BTC for approximately $100 million. The company’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 846,842 BTC, valued at nearly $56 billion at current prices.
This purchase followed Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale in nearly four years. That earlier sale had unsettled the broader cryptocurrency market.
