Bitcoin’s longest spot ETF inflow streak in nine months ended on Thursday, July 23, with a $225.1 million outflow. The asset remains within a long-term bearish trend, as the bulls failed to break past the $67k local supply zone. Onchain data indicates the market is not yet in a bullish overheated territory, nor has it reached the typical bear market bottom. Analysts point to the MVRV ratio, supply in profit, and long-term holder metrics that suggest the broader bearish regime is still intact, with potential for further selling pressure.
Bitcoin [BTC] faced minor losses following a break in its spot ETF inflow streak, which ended on Thursday, July 23 with a $225.1 million outflow. The bulls’ inability to break past the $67k local supply zone has returned control to the bears.
The MVRV ratio remains above 1, indicating the aggregate holder is still in profit. However, analyst Rei Researcher noted this cycle has not seen the MVRV fall below 1, which historically marks bear market bottoms.
Analyst The Chess Onchain observed that Bitcoin supply in profit is currently at 57.5%. The 30-day average of the long-term holder SOPR, now at 0.86, must reclaim 1.0 to reliably signal the end of a bear trend.
“With this occurrence as a historic bar,” the analyst found that the supply in profit metric must reach at least 64% and stabilize for weeks before any recovery is confirmed.
When the price bounce began in early June, Bitcoin older than six months spiked to 12%-16% of exchange inflows, but has since fallen to 0.8%. A cohort of holders with cost bases between $72k and $102k presents a supply overhang.
The data suggests Bitcoin has not yet exited its broader bearish regime, and another wave of selling remains a possibility.
