Bitcoin traders are focusing on oil and gold prices as the cryptocurrency risks cementing its key 200-week exponential moving average as new resistance. Over the weekend, BTC traded below this critical level, with analysts noting a weekly close beneath it would solidify the trend line as resistance. Market observers point to commodities as the main catalysts for potential price volatility in the coming week.
Bitcoin threatened to establish new resistance during Sunday’s weekly close as attention shifted to oil and gold. Data showed multiday lows of $66,569 for BTC/USD over the weekend, placing it below its key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the significance of losing that 200-week EMA, currently at $68,310, during the weekly close. “Indeed Bitcoin has once again upside wicked beyond the 200 EMA, with price cancelling out the vast amount of the recent rebound,” he wrote in an X post. He added that a weekly candle close below “would continue to solidify the EMA as resistance.”
Prior to February, BTC/USD last saw a close beneath this trend line on weekly timeframes in early March 2023. On a more optimistic note, trader Merlijn argued that price could repeat its 2023 structure, which ultimately sparked major upside after reclaiming the 200-week EMA.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe tied gold and oil performance directly to Bitcoin’s chances of a rebound. “All eyes on Oil tomorrow, and Gold & Silver. If those are moving in favor of Bitcoin, we might see a return to the highs in the coming week and the worst is behind us,” he told X followers. He also stated he would be “a big buyer in the $60K areas” if lows were tested again without favorable commodity movement.
WTI crude oil ended Friday up nearly 16% on the day, while gold hovered beneath the $5,200 mark. Van de Poppe noted record low relative strength index (RSI) readings for Bitcoin versus gold, indicating the cryptocurrency is undervalued compared to the precious metal. “It’s still the lowest RSI in history of that particular metric,” he wrote, concluding gold is overvalued and Bitcoin is undervalued in the short term.
