Key cryptocurrency indicators continue to paint a complex, divergent picture for Bitcoin ahead of its next major move. The Bitcoin Sharpe Signal, a risk-adjusted momentum indicator, currently sits at 0.40, just below the 0.50 threshold historically linked to stronger upside momentum. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows whales are accumulating while retail investors sell, and broader market models show no confirmed bullish signals yet.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Signal is hovering near 0.40, remaining in a “pre-signal” zone below the 0.50 level that has historically preceded stronger upside phases. This data was stated by market analysts.
The MVRV Z-Score currently reads 0.56, placing Bitcoin in a fair value range where it is considered neither cheap nor overheated. This marks a recovery from a low of 0.30 recorded in February.
Short-term holders, defined as those holding the asset for less than 155 days, are currently selling at a loss. Their loss-to-profit ratio has ranged between 8 to 10 times since January.
The clearest positive signal comes from exchange flows, where wallets holding over $1 million in Bitcoin withdrew more than 6,000 BTC during the week of March 24. Analysts suggest this divergence, with smaller holders depositing, often appears during early recovery phases.
Despite these developments, a broader “confluence model” tracking price, activity, profitability, and supply shows zero active bullish signals. Not one of its four tracked categories currently meets the criteria for a confirmed market recovery.
Market watchers like Jelle have said BTC could revisit the $60,000 range, possibly dropping to $50,000 if support fails. Another trader, Doctor Profit, warned the asset has not reached its bottom and could fall to $40,000 before any sustained recovery.
Conversely, trader Merlijn The Trader noted on March 24 that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has reached oversold territory for only the fourth time in its history. The previous three instances were followed by significant price gains.
Bitcoin was trading at just under $70,000 at the time of reporting, down nearly 2% over 24 hours but up 11% over the past 30 days.
