Bitcoin‘s 52-week correlation with gold dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022, and it may turn negative by the end of January 2026. Analysts view the move as a divergence that has historically preceded notable Bitcoin rallies.
In four past instances, Bitcoin rose an average of 56% within roughly two months after the correlation turned negative. One exception occurred in May 2021, when Bitcoin fell about 26% instead of rallying.
That 2021 drop followed Tesla’s suspension of Bitcoin payments and a sharper Chinese crackdown on mining and trading. Those events triggered forced deleveraging that overwhelmed the correlation signal.
Rising global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve‘s quantitative tightening are cited as bullish macro tailwinds. As stated in a report by Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management, “As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program ending, it is likely that we will see this growth rate continue to the upside throughout 2026, a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.”
In 2025, gold climbed about 65%, while Bitcoin’s returns stayed nearly flat. As said on X, Tuur Demeester that “accelerated money printing remains a major tailwind for Bitcoin.”
A 56% rally would place Bitcoin near $144,000–$150,000. Crypto analyst Midas shared a long-term fractal comparing the 2024–2026 structure to 2020–2021, noting a sequence of downtrend, accumulation, and a pre-bull breakout that previously preceded a parabolic advance.
