The holding structure of Bitcoin is deteriorating as major investor cohorts show signs of distribution. Whale accounts holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have seen their annual balance growth turn negative at the fastest rate this year. Dolphin holders, dominated by ETFs and corporate treasuries, are still growing annually but at a sharply decelerated pace. Analysts note these trends historically precede sustained price weakness, with current market conditions showing around 40% of the BTC supply is held at a loss.
An increasing number of Bitcoin holders are seeing their investments turn red as the holding structure continues to deteriorate. Annual balance growth for whale accounts holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin has turned negative in the fastest contraction this year. Monthly growth has been flat since February, suggesting a shift from accumulation to mild distribution mirroring the 2022 bear market.
Dolphin holders, who hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC and are dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, are still growing annually but growth has sharply decelerated. Monthly balance growth is near zero across both cohorts, with dolphin balances printing successive lower highs since September 2025. Historically, these periods preceded sustained price weakness, as these cohorts collectively represent the primary source of structural demand support.
The weakening holding structure is occurring as the crypto bear market deepens amid mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. The long-term holder supply reached a fresh record of 15.8 million BTC, but it is a bearish configuration signaling the absence of new market entrants. HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun stated that since Bitcoin pulled back from its peak in October, the highest proportion of supply in unrealized loss once approached 50%.
“If mapped against the on-chain realized price, the absolute bottom territory could be around $40,000 to $45,000.” Sun was optimistic that Bitcoin could see a more realistic bottom range around $55,000 to $60,000, assuming tensions between the US and Iran do not escalate and the Federal Reserve does not hike rates. “Ultimately, the formation of a solid market bottom and subsequent recovery still relies on a definitive easing of interest rates and the broader liquidity environment.”
An analyst noted that the current range-bound market remains a difficult environment for investors to navigate. Euphoria emerges whenever BTC approaches the upper end of the range, while pessimism quickly returns as price moves closer to the lower boundary. At current prices of around $73,700, roughly 40% of the supply was acquired at higher levels and is being held at a loss.
