Bitcoin is trading at $66,221 after a 2.76% daily gain, with market cap reaching $1.33 trillion. A historic macro bottom signal has reappeared on the monthly chart: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) around -71, and price testing the 50-month moving average. Analyst Ali Martinez notes this combination has marked every major Bitcoin cycle bottom, preceding rallies of 8,300% in 2015, 1,911% in 2019, and 675% in 2022. Short-term momentum is also improving, with a bullish MACD crossover and price above the middle Bollinger Band.
Bitcoin held above $66,000 on July 21 as a classic bottoming pattern returned to the monthly chart. The cryptocurrency traded at $66,221, up 2.76% over the previous day, with $46.55 billion in daily volume.
Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that on-chain metrics like MVRV and CVDD still suggest a possible drop to $40,000–$50,000. However, he argued the long-term technical chart tells a different story.
“In all the big Bitcoin bottoms experienced, there have always been three indicators that occur concurrently,” Martinez stated. The monthly RSI at roughly 43.65, a CMO near -71, and Bitcoin testing its 50-month moving average have preceded every major recovery.
This formation last appeared in December 2022 near $16,270, ahead of a 675% rally. It also occurred in 2015 at $235 and in 2019 at $3,333, leading to gains of 8,300% and 1,911% respectively. Last month’s correction to $58,000 triggered the same technical convergence.
On the short-term chart, Bitcoin now trades above the middle Bollinger Band at $63,770 and is approaching the upper band at $65,969. The MACD line at 471.26 remains above the signal line at 373.19, with a histogram reading of 98.07 indicating sustained positive momentum.
If buying pressure continues, Bitcoin may test the upper Bollinger Band as resistance. A failure to sustain current levels could turn that zone into a ceiling.
