After a 7% rally from $58,000 to $64,000 in early July, Bitcoin’s supply structure is shifting decisively toward long-term holders. Data from Alphractal shows long-term holders now control 84% of all Bitcoin, while short-term holder supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2016. The firm’s founder Joao Wedson noted that nearly every supply age band is shrinking except coins held for six to 12 months, indicating growing conviction. Meanwhile, analysts remain divided on whether the market has bottomed, with some citing on-chain improvements and others warning that optimism has become excessive.
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed about 7% from $58,000 to $64,000 in less than two weeks after a brutal June. Amid the modest recovery, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson observed that Bitcoin’s supply distribution increasingly shows long-term investor conviction.
According to Alphractal data, Long-Term Holder Supply is now 5.2 times larger than Short-Term Holder Supply. The amount of BTC held by short-term investors has dropped to its lowest level since 2016. Long-term holders now control 84% of Bitcoin’s total supply, leaving just 16% in the hands of short-term participants.
Wedson stated that this shift goes beyond a simple supply metric because it evidences growing conviction among holders. He added that if demand rises while this supply structure remains unchanged, the market could become more sensitive to fresh capital inflows.
Another trend identified by Alphractal is that nearly every Supply Age Band is shrinking, except for coins that have remained unmoved for six to 12 months. According to the HODL Waves chart, this group’s share of Bitcoin’s total supply is rising quickly, suggesting that a growing portion of coins acquired in recent months have not been sold despite volatility.
The analytics platform stated that this could reflect increasing investor conviction rather than simply aging supply. If these coins remain untouched, they will gradually move into older age bands, further strengthening Long-Term Holder Supply while reducing Bitcoin readily available for trading.
Following the recent uptick, debate over whether the market has already bottomed has intensified. Some analysts argue that improving on-chain data and renewed ETF inflows point to stabilization. However, Doctor Profit believes that optimism around the crypto asset has become excessive. According to the analyst, those trying to support bullish scenarios while urging investors to buy will eventually be proven wrong by the market.
