Bitcoin’s on-chain data signals a potential shift into a deep bear phase. According to data from Glassnode, a key metric tracking profit-taking has fallen below a critical level, indicating investors are now realizing more losses than gains. This transition often precedes prolonged periods of market stress, similar to conditions last seen in 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is flashing a signal historically linked to prolonged bear market conditions. The 90-day simple moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a regime shift toward loss-dominant selling.
Glassnode analysts noted in a February 24 update, “This confirms a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime.” Historically, breaks below this threshold have persisted for six months or more before recovery.
This suggests market liquidity is evaporating and forcing investors to realize losses. The dynamic was last seen during the deepest crypto winter periods of 2018 and 2022.
Indicators tied to whale activity have reached levels similar to May-June 2022. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed this confluence with previous bear market bottoms.
The current sell-side pressure follows a dramatic cooldown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. At that time, 7-day average realized profits crashed from over $1 billion to just $183.8 million.
This temporary stabilization allowed Bitcoin to rally above $96,000 in early January. However, Bitcoin is now trading at approximately $63,200, down almost 29% over the past month.
Analysts attribute the weakness to a combination of macro factors. These include U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements, which have rattled risk assets.
Despite the bearish signals, some maintain Bitcoin’s long-term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently framed current volatility as a necessary “teenage state” of monetary evolution.
Chartist Ali Martinez warned a three-day “death cross” could be confirmed in late February. This pattern foreshadowed final downside moves in 2014, 2018, and 2022, historically leading to additional steep declines.
