Bitcoin miners are entering a period of significant financial strain, according to an analysis of key industry metrics. Falling cryptocurrency prices and reduced revenue have pushed indicators into a “stress zone,” though conditions are not yet as severe as past market collapses. The data suggests further pressure could lead miners toward a capitulation phase if Bitcoin’s price declines further without a corresponding adjustment in mining difficulty.
Bitcoin miners are under growing financial pressure as falling prices shrink revenue. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. describes several key indicators entering a “stress zone.”
The Puell Multiple 30-day moving average fell to 0.74 by June 10 from 0.83 at May’s end. This metric compares daily miner revenue to its annual average, with values below 1.0 indicating below-normal earnings.
For context, this indicator reached 0.45 at the 2022 cycle low. The current reading of 0.74 is roughly equivalent to levels seen during the mid-2024 halving period.
A second metric, the Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple, has fallen to 80 from a 2025 high of 160. Adler calls this a “normalization zone” that has not yet reached undervaluation.
At the 2022 bottom, this ratio hit 33. It compressed to as low as 15 in February 2019.
The Miner Capitulation metric shows a drawdown of -21% as of June 9. Historically, deeper distress emerges when contractions push beyond -30%.
The worst reading on record was -39% in 2022. That period contributed to forced selling and large-scale equipment shutdowns.
Adler confirmed miners have not yet fully capitulated. For that to happen, the Puell Multiple would likely need to fall below 0.50.
The other metrics would need to compress toward 30-40 and show a dip beyond -30%. All three are currently at about half the severity of historical extremes.
The analyst noted conditions could deteriorate further if Bitcoin falls below $55,000. This scenario is possible without a new downward difficulty adjustment.
Bitcoin was trading just below $63,000 at the time of reporting. It recently recovered from a brief drop toward $59,000, its lowest point in nearly two years.
