Bitcoin appears to be entering the final phase of a five-to-six-month bear market window, during which it typically trades below the Short-term Holder Realized Price. Analysts believe July, marking the fifth month of this period, could witness a significant recovery for the asset. While positive seasonal dynamics may drive a rebound, macro factors such as the June U.S. Consumer Price Index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt the process. Bitcoin has recently demonstrated resilience, absorbing record corporate selling and maintaining a range between $61,300 and $64,700. Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a nine-week outflow streak, recording $197.4 million in net inflows, signaling recovering institutional demand.
Analysts have identified that Bitcoin typically experiences a bear market window of five to six months, where it trades below the Short-term Holder Realized Price. The end of this window is not enough to confirm a broader recovery, as macro and demand dynamics must also align.
The positive seasonality of July may drive the recovery, but macro factors like the June U.S. Consumer Price Index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could constitute a hindrance. So far this month, Bitcoin has absorbed record corporate selling and weathered renewed geopolitical pressure.
Last week, the asset faced challenges from multiple directions, including Strategy executing its largest sale ever and continued divisions within the Fed. Despite this harsh environment, Bitcoin managed to maintain its range between $61,300 and $64,700.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds broke a nine-week outflow streak, recording $197.4 million in net inflows for the first time in over two months. Although these inflows reflect recovering institutional demand, Bitcoin still remains dependent on the macro environment, with July’s positive seasonality staying secondary.
Analysts believe the ETF inflow pattern matters more than the total volume. The inflows appeared more on quieter days and receded when geopolitical tensions intensified, indicating that institutional demand has not established a durable floor.
One major indicator to watch is the 30-day Simple Moving Average of ETF net inflows. This metric tracks the primary direction of institutional positioning and shows that the monthly trend remains in a state of net contraction, with daily redemptions hitting $88.9 million. The next moves of the SMA will depend on whether July’s seasonality is strong enough to override macro tensions.
