Bitcoin has gained nearly 23% over the past month, but the advance is driven primarily by short covering rather than fresh leverage, according to QCP Capital. The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, with Kevin Warsh reinforcing the 2% PCE target as headline PCE sits at 3.7%. Narrow liquidity and heavy long-dated corporate issuance add headwinds. Analysts warn that a daily close above $83,000 is needed to confirm a new uptrend; failure could send Bitcoin toward $50,000–$55,000. Meanwhile, Doctor Profit argues the bear market is over, citing a breakout into a “Soft Bull Market.”
Bitcoin has gained nearly 23% over the past month, but a few choppy sessions briefly dragged the asset below $76,500. BTC has since stabilized above $77,700 following a minor 1.4% surge on Thursday.
The latest uptick came mainly from short covering rather than a fresh increase in leverage, according to QCP Capital, as markets continued to face a firm Federal Reserve stance. Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed’s focus on maintaining a 2% PCE inflation target, while headline PCE remains at 3.7%.
Treasury long-end buybacks were doubled to $4 billion quarterly, but QCP said the amount represents only 0.013% of the $31.5 trillion Treasury market. Heavy long-dated investment-grade issuance is also adding pressure, as technology companies account for 38% of 10-year-plus supply.
Analyst NoName said that Bitcoin’s next major move could depend on whether it can close above $83,000. A daily close above that level, supported by strong spot volume, would be needed to confirm a new uptrend.
Without that confirmation, NoName said that the recent bounce was a retest of previous supply. They warned that a rejection at $83,000 followed by a break below $74,000 could send the crypto asset toward $50,000–$55,000.
CryptoPatel also flagged the exact level and said that Bitcoin could face further losses if it fails to reclaim it with a higher-timeframe candle close. In that scenario, the analyst expects potential declines toward $70,000, $65,000, and $60,000.
Another market watcher, Rain, noted that Bitcoin is starting to lose the demand support that helped the August rally. Not everyone sees further downside ahead; Doctor Profit reiterated his stance that the bear market is over.
Doctor Profit stated: “Many desperate investors that wish for a lower Bitcoin price, some even call for a new low, and others say the bear market isn’t over. In fact, and I say it with my full conviction, I consider the bear market as over!” He expects the current “Soft Bull Market” to turn into a full bull market escalation.
