Bitcoin closed April with gains just under 12%, its second positive monthly performance since September 2025. The rally occurred despite significant geopolitical tensions, including escalating Middle East conflicts that pushed oil above $120 per barrel. Institutional activity, including four Bitcoin purchases totaling $4.13 billion by Strategy, supported the price. However, data from CryptoQuant indicates the gains may be speculative, as its apparent demand metric remained negative throughout the month.
Bitcoin ended April with double-digit gains despite an uncertain geopolitical outlook and conflicting signals on investor demand. The leading crypto rallied just under 12% last month, marking only its second positive monthly close since September 2025.
Geopolitical conditions were tumultuous, including the extended conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran. The UAE’s exit from OPEC ended its 59-year membership during this period.
Oil surged to $120 per barrel, with U.S. WTI crude hitting $110, as the Middle East war exacerbated tensions. According to the Independent, President Trump received a high-level briefing on new military options against Iran.
The prospect of diplomacy appears dim. Users on prediction market Myriad now see just a 17% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15.
Despite the escalating tensions, Bitcoin held its ground. The bullish price action was driven by sustained spot ETF inflows, leveraged positioning by derivatives traders, and continued accumulation by Strategy.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, made four distinct Bitcoin purchases in April totaling approximately $4.13 billion. The company’s stock posted its first positive month since July 2025, surging 32%.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,350. This represents an increase of 1.9% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite the price gains, not all signals are bullish. CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric remained in contraction territory throughout April, signaling an absence of organic spot demand.
“This is one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative rather than structural,” CryptoQuant noted in its Thursday report. Orkun Kilic, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, offered a different lens.
“ETF inflows and on-chain demand measure two different aspects of Bitcoin’s evolution,” he stated. “For this rally to be sustainable, that capital needs somewhere productive to go.”
The divergence between price and demand highlights a market where ETF inflows may be masking weaker underlying conviction. A meaningful share of recent ETF demand may be tied to cash-and-carry trades, a market-neutral strategy that does not reflect outright bullish positioning.
“Institutional interest is rising, but not all of it may be driven by long-term conviction,” Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, previously said. Kilic remains bullish on the broader trajectory.
“To me it looks like a budding bull market,” he said. “If anything, the signals are more encouraging than before, with greater regulatory clarity and stronger institutional support.”
