Bitcoin is exhibiting a divergence between spot and derivatives markets, with apparent demand remaining negative throughout 2026. The Coinbase Premium Index has turned red in recent weeks, signaling weak institutional demand, while rising leverage trends create vulnerability to a liquidation cascade. Stablecoin outflows from exchanges indicate defensive positioning among market participants. Despite these warnings, short-term holder buying pressure is dominating, mirroring conditions seen in February. Technical analysis suggests a potential bounce toward the $73,200 to $77,500 range. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points to compressed selling pressure and a buyer advantage, characterizing the current price as within an accumulation zone.
Bitcoin’s bearish swing structure saw a continuation signal when the February lows were breached in the final week of June. After reaching a new low of $57,800, the cryptocurrency has crept higher. From a technical perspective, this bounce can extend to the $73,200 to $77,500 area, the golden pocket in Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Bitcoin Realized Pressure Model compares realized buying and selling pressure from short-term holders to current prices. According to Adler Jr., selling pressure is compressed and buyers have an advantage, indicating an accumulation phase. In February, the buying pressure average score was 61 percent compared to a selling average of 22 percent. As Bitcoin rallied, the situation shifted; in May, selling pressure hit 43 percent versus a buying score of 11 percent. In June and July, short-term holder buying pressure once again became dominant, ranging from 37 to 46 percent, while selling was compressed to 16 percent. Until these scores deteriorate, a bounce similar to the one that began in February remains possible.
The short-term holder cost basis metric separates different cohorts’ purchase prices. The 1-week-to-1-month cohort’s realized price is $61,600, while the 3-month-to-6-month cohort’s average purchase price is $74,900. The newest cohort of buyers is in profit, but older cohorts (one to six months) are underwater by about 15 percent. Adler Jr. suggests this older group may wait for a price bounce toward or beyond $70,000 before selling in large numbers, potentially meeting a short-term rally with a wave of selling. He concluded that the current market price is within an accumulation zone with “a moderate risk-on tilt.” A reclaim of the $71,000 level would provide notable confirmation of a bullish pivot.
