Bitcoin has shown signs of bottoming by recovering from $57,800 to nearly $63,000 over the past week, but key on-chain indicators have not yet confirmed a broader turnaround. The asset remains in a “deep value” zone, trading below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200 for approximately five months. However, long-term holders are the primary source of selling pressure, with their realized losses recently climbing to around $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022. Institutional demand remains weak, with US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows staying negative since mid-May. Derivatives markets also show a defensive posture, with traders continuing to pay a premium for downside protection.
Bitcoin has spent about five months trading below both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, according to data from Glassnode. Such long discount periods have historically provided the foundation for cyclical bottoms as investors accumulate below the average cost of recent buyers.
However, a further decline toward the Realized Price of roughly $53,000 remains possible. Long-term holders are the primary source of current selling pressure, with their share of realized value attributed to losses increasing from 15% to 43% since early February. This wave of distribution has prevented Bitcoin from reclaiming the upper end of its current trading range.
Glassnode stated that long-term holders’ realized losses measured on a 30-day moving average recently climbed to around $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022. Unlike the previous spike, this wave of capitulation has not yet begun to cool, and a decline in this metric will be necessary before a credible transition back to bullish conditions.
Off-chain indicators also point to weak institutional demand, as the 30-day average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has remained negative since mid-May. Daily outflows declined from a peak of $193 million in early June to approximately $88.9 million, which is viewed as a “tentative positive,” but institutions are still reducing exposure overall.
ETF trading activity also remains low, with daily volume ranging between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025. Both stronger trading activity and a return to neutral or positive ETF flows would be needed to confirm renewed institutional participation.
Derivatives markets present a mixed picture, with the options put/call ratio falling to 0.56, its lowest level this year. Despite this, the options market remained defensive, as “the 25-delta skew, the premium of downside protection over upside, is bid across every tenor.” The report added that “every selloff since the winter has re-bid it, and late June’s spike to 24% was the most defensive the front end has been since the February selloff.”
Bitcoin also trades about 6% below the options market’s aggregated max pain level of $66,000, the price at which the greatest number of outstanding options would expire worthless.
