The CLARITY Act, a major crypto market-structure bill, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee but faces an uncertain path to final approval. Prediction-market traders have become less optimistic, with odds dropping to roughly 31% after recent legislative struggles. The bill requires at least 60 Senate votes and must reconcile differences between two committees. Democratic lawmakers demand stricter restrictions on senior officials profiting from crypto, referencing the Trump meme coin saga. Banks also oppose features allowing crypto platforms to pay interest on stablecoin balances. Despite White House meetings, no significant progress has been made. The November midterm elections add further uncertainty.
The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May with bipartisan support, including two Democratic senators joining all Republicans. The bill aims to give the CFTC clearer jurisdiction over spot markets for commodities while the SEC retains authority over securities.
The legislation is now on the Senate calendar as №423, but it requires at least 60 votes to pass. Democratic lawmakers have pushed for stronger language restricting elected officials from owning or benefiting from crypto ventures.
The Trump meme coin saga has fueled these demands. Banks have also argued that crypto platforms should not offer interest-like payments on stablecoin balances, fearing deposit outflows from traditional lenders.
White House meetings earlier this year failed to resolve these disputes, and a reported compromise in May did not hold. Trump’s latest meeting also could not reach equilibrium or make significant progress.
The Senate must first agree to bring the bill to the floor, but negotiators need enough Democratic commitments to overcome the 60-vote threshold. Two committees – Banking and Agriculture – must reconcile their versions into a single package before a vote.
Prediction market odds stood at around 40% earlier this week and above 70% after the committee advancement in May. They have since fallen to approximately 31% after recent struggles, and Washington analysts believe the real odds are even lower.
Supporters want the Senate to act before its August recess, but the November midterm elections loom large, as a major change in control of Congress is likely. The bill’s final approval remains far from reality.
