Analysts at blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant project Bitcoin’s “ultimate bear market bottom” at approximately $55,000, based on the asset’s realized price. Their report warns that bear market bottoms take time to form, and a key market cycle indicator has not yet entered the “extreme bear” phase that typically marks the start of a bottoming process. Bitcoin would need to fall roughly 21% from its current level to reach this projected support zone.
A new analysis from CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin’s bear market has further to run, identifying a potential bottom near $55,000. The firm’s weekly report states “Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55K today.”
This level is derived from Bitcoin’s realized price, a metric tracking the average purchase price across the network. Historically, this price has acted as a major support area during previous bear markets.
Once the price reaches this level, it tends to consolidate there for several months. “Once the price gets to this level, it tends to gravitate around it for 4-6 months,” the firm wrote.
CryptoQuant also notes its bull-bear market cycle indicator remains in a standard “bear” phase. It has not yet entered the “extreme bear” segment, which has historically signaled the beginning of a bottom formation process.
This analysis aligns with other recent forecasts. Galaxy’s head of research previously cited a lack of near-term catalysts and structural weakness as reasons Bitcoin could drift toward its 200-week moving average near $58,000.
Earlier this week, Standard Chartered also updated its forecast, suggesting BTC could fall to $50,000 before any rebound toward $100,000. A prediction market operated by Dastan, Myriad, also shows participants leaning toward a drop to $55,000 before a recovery.
Bitcoin’s price recently hovered around $69,724, marking a significant decline from recent highs. It has fallen approximately 27% over the past month and nearly 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October.
