Federal regulators are investigating former House Representative George Santos for allegedly trading illegally on prediction market platform Kalshi. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Justice Department are probing a bet Santos reportedly placed on whether he would attend the 2024 State of the Union address. Santos has denied the accusations via social media, stating his legal team is in contact with the DOJ. This case highlights increasing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, where several other insider trading cases have recently emerged.
Federal regulators are investigating former House Representative George Santos over suspicious trading on the prediction market Kalshi. The Justice Department alleges Santos traded illegally on a contract referencing his own potential appearance at this year’s State of the Union address.
Kalshi informed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Justice Department about suspected trading in late February. Sources close to the investigation said Santos allegedly bet he would not attend the presidential address to Congress held at the Capitol that month.
Santos, who was expelled from the House in 2023 and later had a sentence commuted, denied the accusations. “My legal team is in contact with the DOJ to see what is going on,” Santos wrote in a statement via X. “The accusation is preposterous, and I look forward to supplying any information asked of me to any agency that inquires.”
The rise of CFTC-regulated prediction markets has created new temptations in Washington. Regulators are addressing a rash of suspicious betting touching various parts of the federal bureaucracy.
Several U.S. states have already banned trading in prediction markets. In April, authorities charged a U.S. Army special forces soldier with illegally betting on the ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Last month, prosecutors alleged a Google employee traded on a Polymarket bet about the most searched person of 2025. These cases illustrate the ongoing legal challenges surrounding insider trading on event-driven prediction markets.
